Be especially careful in upcoming months

[patful]

Basically, the internet is not the place to find facts, ever. 95% of it is nothing but politics, paranoia, conspiracy theories, and lunacy. Do I trust this administration to give me any accurate info? Hell no. I don't think this type of thread has any place in a flight simulator forum, and would love it if the mods would put an end to them.

[Mikenor]

Second time in the last 2 to 3 months that someone brought up this subject in this very forum and many people jumped in and participated with comments - that is until a couple of people came in with different opinions, and the "lets freeze this thread" comes up. The last time was on the vaccine. If we are to freeze this thread, then let's freeze all threads discussing this right from the onset, not only when certain responses with alternate opinions trigger it. I don't see anything in what Brett, TWsharp or I said that crosses a certain line that would warrant this type of response. I've been a customer of A2A's (as I'm sure you have) for over 10 years, and own everything they have put out both for FSX and then P3D. I should be able to respond to a post that was started not by me, but by another member. I respect everyones opinion, but should be able to express mine as well.

[patful]

The OP said he was scared, and that people need to be careful. Nothing controversial there, no real medical advice, BUT you know where it will go at some point. Once people start trying to impart their great knowledge about this subject, politics, religion, etc., no matter which side they're on, it needs to be shut down, but preferably never start the thread in the first place. I rarely read them, but do slip up every now and then, and I do comment. It's just human nature.

Put a damned sticky at the top of the page: This forum is for flight simulation and aviation. I moderated an NFL fansite for years. Once we got into these issues, we lost members, both through anger at each other, and at the mods for doing too little or too much.

[twsharp12]

I'll just say I agree with Scott, the A2A CEO, when he gave his opinion on the first thread related to this.

Here are some very good stats for COVID-19:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... fatalities

It shows COVID-19 not all that much different than other diseases when it comes to age (which is brutal). It reminds me just how deadly the common flu can be for the elderly. Still many of us think of the flu as benign for healthy people because it just doesn't pose a risk worth worrying about.

The issue with COVID-19 IMO is how easily it spreads. If tomorrow every single person in the world got the flu there would be carnage. But that can't be confused with risk of death. But people are doing the right thing by social distancing and wearing masks to limit the spread and it's working. We need to keep in mind that, if you are young and healthy you are more likely to die in a car accident than from COVID-19. I'm not worried about my kids getting COVID-19 and I am a parent that worries about my kids a lot (I spend time helping Jake with flight safety because that is 20-100x more likely to kill him). I feel this way about COVID-19 only because there is no statistic I've seen to give me reason to feel otherwise. We all can agree it's serious for elderly and those with weakened systems but it seems some still feel there is high risk for young and healthy even when the data we have says otherwise.

If someone can post a statistic that shows a healthy young or middle aged person has more reason to fear COVID-19 than the flu, please post it. There is probably misinformation being spread on both positions (which means I could be wrong too).

Scott.

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

I was just saying be more on guard in the next couple of months here in the USA as the numbers are predicted to go up again maybe at twice the normal rate.
That's something to be concerned about.
If you're not concerned then that would be very foolish of you.
I don't want any one of you here to get sick or to die.
If I save a life of a forum member or help prevent an illness it's worth it.
That is the only reason and motive for my original post to be more on guard during the next months ahead.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The odds of being or have been confirmed infected in the past are now 1 in 50 in the USA if the population of the USA is around 330,000,000 people

[Jarek]

What I could suggest is to watch the original 1971 "Vanishing Point" movie, paying close attention to the role of the Media, represented by some local broadcaster. How the story of some regular guy, that would probably would remain unnoticed is developing. Spreading panic can cost lives too. Because of this panic at WW scale, some people are afraid to visit a doctor now or the service is limited. Simple facts.

[Stearmandriver]

I'll just say I agree with Scott, the A2A CEO, when he gave his opinion on the first thread related to this.

If someone can post a statistic that shows a healthy young or middle aged person has more reason to fear COVID-19 than the flu, please post it. There is probably misinformation being spread on both positions (which means I could be wrong too).

Scott.

No problem; this is easy. The case fatality rate of seasonal influenza is around .1% - that's one tenth of one percent. The case fatality rate of Covid19 is 2% - 3%... that means Covid19 is at least 20 times (not percent; TIMES) more often fatal than seasonal influenza.

Because both influenza and Covid19 disproportionately target older people, that comparison remains true for younger demographics; while both are much less likely to kill you if you're younger, Covid19 is still at least 20 times MORE likely to kill you than influenza.

[twsharp12]

I'll just say I agree with Scott, the A2A CEO, when he gave his opinion on the first thread related to this.

If someone can post a statistic that shows a healthy young or middle aged person has more reason to fear COVID-19 than the flu, please post it. There is probably misinformation being spread on both positions (which means I could be wrong too).

Scott.

No problem; this is easy. The case fatality rate of seasonal influenza is around .1% - that's one tenth of one percent. The case fatality rate of Covid19 is 2% - 3%... that means Covid19 is at least 20 times (not percent; TIMES) more often fatal than seasonal influenza.

Because both influenza and Covid19 disproportionately target older people, that comparison remains true for younger demographics; while both are much less likely to kill you if you're younger, Covid19 is still at least 20 times MORE likely to kill you than influenza.

You didn't post any source.

[BrettT]

Is it real.....of course it is. Should you take precautions if you have family members with underlying conditions etc...of course. Does that mean the whole country needs to come to a screeching stop....I disagree. Even the WHO has said that shutting down is an extreme measure. The virus is worldwide. The only realistic hope of complete containment was when it was in a small section of China. Once that horse left the barn and it became worldwide, containment was no longer viable. It is still possible to contain in isolated areas for short periods of time but ultimately it is just a delaying tactic (ie. at some point you have to open up and at that point you are vulnerable) . The only other value shutting down has is to meter the caseload of the hospitals so that they still retain capacity. But as noted there is a cost with that as well.....people not having procedures, or delaying dr visits, increased depression, suicides, drug overdoses, increased child abuse, etc etc.

I believe there is some light around the corner. Just looking at the US's daily cases between the spring and the summer. In Spring there were approximately half of the daily cases but twice as many daily deaths in the summer wave there are about twice as many daily cases and the daily death rate is half.

Or look at Sweden. They did virtually nothing to limit spread. No shutdowns, masks, no limit to travel etc. Their daily deaths had an initial surge and then a steady decline until mid July where for the last 2 months they have had a trickle (0-3 deaths per day). They are still getting a steady case load but it simply isn't having the same effect.

All of this information is available via the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

You can look at the statistic recovery rates at JHU or that other worldometer site it's around 95% for the USA with a death rate of 5%. It was 94% recovery and 6% death rate a while before. Just take the numbers and do the math yourself if you have to and it's not very pretty.
Kind of high here for the USA. But this does not include the unconfirmed cases of which there may or may not be a lot more of.
Likely mild or asymptomatic infected people who never got tested and recovered by themselves.
By that measure the odds of infection could be quite different and the death rate a lower percentage
I've seen that 2% death rate number before but I can't remember where right oft hand.
I'm just posting the approx 5% death rate just for the USA because of an easy to find source of confirmed cases.

Personally myself I have to be very careful,use a lot of precautions but still go to my doctor appointments,medical testing photo therapy sessions 3 days a week at a medical facility.
Like I said before I am one of those in the high risk category with multiple medical conditions.
I have to see my doctor and cardiologist it's practically mandatory otherwise no meds in which case I would likely die of a heart attack.
I ride a bicycle to get there it's only 2 miles distance and healthy for me (In some ways as long as I don't get attacked,shot at or run over etc)
I was brutally assaulted by a 29 year old schizophrenic guy out of prison last year and almost killed being in the hospital for a week just walking in my neighborhood by a local post office a few blocks away from my house so I do have to be careful. Edit by the way that same guy is again back in jail (good for everyone's safety) facing even more serious felony charges and the violent crime victim this time is his own mother.
As for shopping for food I have it all delivered or else what food I grow in my backyard or on fruit trees,bushes etc.
Mostly everything else I have delivered right now. I am ordering clothes and footwear online too. I am looking like a hippy and need my hair cut. If I don't soon I will look like Cousin Itt in the Addams Family television show in the USA of the 1960's.
O.K. that's a gross exaggeration and it would take many years to look like Cousin Itt with hair that long.

Edit here is a link to Corona virus mortality rate
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

[Stearmandriver]

I'll just say I agree with Scott, the A2A CEO, when he gave his opinion on the first thread related to this.

No problem; this is easy. The case fatality rate of seasonal influenza is around .1% - that's one tenth of one percent. The case fatality rate of Covid19 is 2% - 3%... that means Covid19 is at least 20 times (not percent; TIMES) more often fatal than seasonal influenza.

Because both influenza and Covid19 disproportionately target older people, that comparison remains true for younger demographics; while both are much less likely to kill you if you're younger, Covid19 is still at least 20 times MORE likely to kill you than influenza.

You didn't post any source.

This kind of data can only come from the CDC or WHO; I'd be really skeptical of it otherwise.

Flu cases / deaths numbers for the last 9 seasons are in Table One, here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases, and then converting the result to a percentage, right? Any season you choose to do that for, you'll come up with a CFR of around .1%. Using the 2018 - 2019 data as an example:

34,157 ÷ 35,520,883 = .000962 or .096%.

Current Covid19 numbers can be found here:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases

Using today's numbers:
189,147 ÷ 6,310,663 = .02997 or 2.9%.

For much of the pandemic, the CFR was well over 3% but epidemiologists always estimated the true CFR at closer to 2%, because of the status of testing and the fact that there were inevitably more cases than we knew about. As testing has finally matured (and standard of care has slowly improved as we learn what works) our CFR has slowly fallen but still hovers around 3%. At this point, 2% might be optimistically low.

[Mikenor]

Death rates from Covid are not 2% to 3%, they are .26% which is a little higher than influenza. Worldcommeter statistically show confirmed positives, but the infection rate Is much more eXtent than that number. Estimates in Sweden today are that over 20% of the population has already been infected, with most not even knowing they had the virus, and have reached that much wanted herd immunity. The misconception of the 3% deaths rate is what is feeding the fear out there. The video I linked earlier goes through the numbers and is a much watch to understand the virus path - all fact and science based - not an opinion post.

[Stearmandriver]

Death rates from Covid are not 2% to 3%, they are .26% which is a little higher than influenza. Worldcommeter statistically show confirmed positives, but the infection rate Is much more eXtent than that number. Estimates in Sweden today are that over 20% of the population has already been infected, with most not even knowing they had the virus, and have reached that much wanted herd immunity. The misconception of the 3% deaths rate is what is feeding the fear out there. The video I linked earlier goes through the numbers and is a much watch to understand the virus path - all fact and science based - not an opinion post.

Um... yes they are? I literally just did the math for you in the post immediately above yours. There's zero opinion here; it's just simple math. Case fatality rates have always been well above 2%; as explained, that's a conservative estimate that allows for undiagnosed cases, and as testing has matured and CFR has remained near 3%, that number now looks a little optimistic even.

Further, there's concern that CFR may actually be higher instead of lower when accounting for undiagnosed cases. It's too early to make a determination on that, but the concern stems from the fact that the U.S. is already at 111% of expected deaths for the year and it's only early September. Couple this with large increases in certain specific types of events - like massive strokes in young, healthy people - that are known to be related to a Covid19 side effect (in this case blood clotting) and a convincing case can be made that otherwise asymptomatic people are dying from this at a rate higher than 2%. More data will be needed on that though.

Also, when dealing with a virus with an R0 of around 2.0 (R nought is a measure of how many other people one infected person is expected to infect), far more than 20% of the population needs to get it before herd immunity is achieved...

[AerialShorts]

And now confirmed by Trump all the way back to February 7th, covid is 5x more deadly than “strenuous” flu strains, easily transmitted in the air, very contagious, and affects all age groups. I believe his term for covid was “deadly”.

Trump said it. Heard the tape.

People do need to be careful. The virus has been very well seeded throughout the country.

[Jarek]

Statistics are a perfect tool for manipulation. In this equation you can play with nominator - for example if high figures are needed, every person with influenza or similar symptoms can be counted as covid. Number goes up. On the other hand, you can make tests at massive scale to play with denominator, then number goes down because who how many people with flu-like symptoms visited a doctor on year ago, so how they could be counted? Average person has no tool to verify credibility of these numbers, unless you are insider and you know the full context.
As an common example that can be observed, if you want to fear factor to go up, you can make 1000 tests one day and 10.000 tests the other. Lets say the average number of positives is 3% - you will get 30 and 300 respectively which is the same, but media just put headlines: "dramatic increase! 300 cases reported today!"
The only hard fact is total mortality rate reported by states - and compare data for this year and respective months of 2017, 2018 and so on. For some countries there is no increase at all, but to reach such data, you must dig heavily through "covid, covid, covid" pages, as the search engines are just flooded with junk data.
CDC projections also show slight increase for 2020, but they put disclaimers - that influence of covid is not taken into account. Why? there should be hard data for first half off 2020, but somehow it's not easy to reach it.