How Covid-19 Kills

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

This is a good older video that I saw on YouTube.
It just shows me why I am one of the most vulnerable and how scary it is.
I should really take no chances and should use the most precautions in my case.
I might have to mostly stay at home secluded (except for doctor and cardiologist appointments ) for a year and a half until there really is a vaccine.
Really I have no choice.
Those appointments I will basically have to try to wear something almost like a spacesuit.
I will always at least wear a N95 Mask that I have (I have 9 unused) on those trips along with my medical face shield and gloves etc.

The first part of the video for a while is just well pretty much self evident,seems stupid but once in the middle of the video it gets quite informative.
His channel is so good that I subscribed to it

HOW COVID-19 KILLS--I'm a Surgeon--And Why We Can't Save You.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J0d59dd-qM

Some other videos of his on the same subject
WHY THE CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE WILL INCREASE--I'm A Surgeon--Here's The SCIENCE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSJzPZCEW4I

What It's REALLY Like To Care For COVID ICU Patients: Dr. Gordon, NYC Surgeon, Interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fdGS_WrYQY

Across the street I have some neighbors who go out all the time as though nothing was wrong,have lots of close visitors like family members,relatives,friends and acquaintances daily.
They are likely to get this SARS -CoV-2 virus and suffer the COVID-19 because of their activity.
I don't get along with them at all so I am not going to warn them about their bad habits.

My first guess for NYC was simplistically wrong but my other guess of 150,000 confirmed on April 14 I am still holding to and this post is on April 6
However now it seems like it's an underestimate.
As of today NYC has at 7:30 A.M 67,820 confirmed with 2475 deaths.
JHU lists it at 72,181 and 352,546 confirmed for the USA but these numbers change quickly

I was trying to not make another post about this this but I thought it was educational and informative

[Scott - A2A]

I should really take no chances and should use the most precautions in my case.
I might have to mostly stay at home secluded (except for doctor and cardiologist appointments ) for a year and a half until there really is a vaccine.
Really I have no choice.

Jon people in your situation with pre-existing conditions need to keep treating Covid-19 like it's the plague. As time goes on and people start to recover and get immunity the world will start to return to normal, but this won't be the case for you until there is some solid kind of solid answer. People in your condition will be outliers continuing the same battle. So hunker down and assume every person walking in your door has the plague. Make believe they are a smoker and don't get close enough to breath in anything they exhale and disinfect the entire area once they are gone. This is the time when being a paranoid-germaphobe is a good thing.

This should all be history soon. And when it is I'll fly out to wherever you are, take you out to lunch and we'll celebrate your success.

Scott.

[bladerunner900]

Yes, I concur with Scott. Stay indoors. As an asthma sufferer I have been told to self isolate so that is what I am doing. All those ignoring the directive are being criminally selfish IMO and will just prolong the problem, causing more deaths.

Steve.

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

Well Scott thank you for the gracious offer but that's going overboard although I admit that I would like to meet you in person.
If you ever actually do that I will have to donate some items special to you in return.
I have had the fortune to speak to you several times on the telephone in the past.

I am not planning on allowing anyone in my house until I am vaccinated well except for my 2 indoor pet cats.


And thank you too very much Steve

Edit and to the people below my posts.
To avoid making another post here is a story about someone in the ICU for this subject

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... rc404=true

[AviationAtWar]

All those ignoring the directive are being criminally selfish IMO and will just prolong the problem, causing more deaths.

Steve.

I've been of that opinion for several weeks. Our new owners at work have another facility about an hour away in another state and keep saying that no one over there is worried about any of this and they can't figure out why WE are, and they kept saying 'it should be business as normal'. The people that aren't taking this thing seriously are the ones spreading it.

[danmand]

I've been stuck at home with pneumonia for the last few weeks. Just as this was getting started.
I too have to be extremely careful with this thing.

Nothing to do now except stay at home, flight sim and drive my wife crazy.

Stay safe everyone.

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

I've been stuck at home with pneumonia for the last few weeks. Just as this was getting started.
I too have to be extremely careful with this thing.

Nothing to do now except stay at home, flight sim and drive my wife crazy.

Stay safe everyone.

Well I hope that you get better soon.
I fortunately have a yard (though small) and in my backyard I have been planting some crops (food that my cardiologist would approve of).
Most of the food that I have ordered unfortunately is not food that my doctors would approve of but it's an emergency situation and I don't have anyone to do shopping for me.
I have been approved for the meals on wheels program and that has helped me greatly during this situation.
I can sometimes order expensive approved of food from certain grocery chains to an extent (if the food is in stock).
When you get well perhaps you could do the same thing as I.
I do enjoy being outside in my yard.

[Orlaam]

The truth is that we don't know very much about COVID-19. It's been reported that the binding to ACE2 receptors is the key; however, in 2004, a coronavirus, now designated NL63, which also uses the ACE2 receptor to gain entry and replicate. The NL63 virus appears to date back to the 11th century. The difference between NL63 and the first SARS virus is that the potency for binding and replication rate is lower. So it looks like it gives your body more time to fight the virus off and essentially keep up with the pathology process. Another factor in determining the infectious process is genetics. People often forget that genetics play a role in everything. For example, a minor set of individuals will remain seronegative for HIV despite repeated exposure. CCR5, CCR2, HLA-B and HLA-C are genetic markers that seem to play a role in HIV progression/susceptibility. Even blood groups, ABO, have demonstrated some role in infectious diseases. For example, I've been around influenza-infected individuals many times. I had a girlfriend who was very sick one time from the flu and bed-ridden. I never had any symptoms of exposure. We're all predisposed to something, unfortunately.

Also, medications have been tossed around as a component of COVID, yet this is all speculative at this juncture. NSAIDs and ACE/ARB anti-hypertensives have been thrown around as a potential worsening agent in coronavirus. This is something we simply cannot know, certainly not now. An example is naproxen. Naproxen actually has some inhibitory properties against influenza. So the disease is complex and we may never have all the answers. Developing a vaccine will be difficult. Culturing coronavirus in vitro is very difficult and attempts to develop vaccines has been largely a failure. Yet, up until SARS, we never had a deadly human coronavirus that we know of. The coronavirus has typically been associated with the common cold in about 15-30% of cases since first identified in 1965.

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

Thanks for the very detailed medical information.

You know there is a temporary solution and it lies a lot in the aviation field
We could all wear Military NBC (Nuclear,Biological,Chemical) protective warfare suits (then again they might not be sufficiently protected against a particle as small as a virus). or High Altitude Air Force pressurized G suits with oxygen or Astronaut suits and live in a separate environment like when we need to go outside our property or be around other people (preferably in their own similar type suits).
I suppose HAZMAT suits with their own breathable portable oxygen tanks would work too.
Many of those those microchip workers wear such suits too.
The suit would have to be scrubbed down and decontaminated later on outside or something like that.

I was looking at CPAP mouth pieces,oxygen generators and oxygen tanks or something similar to high altitude mountaineer rock climbers use like when they climb Mount Everest or K2.
If we didn't breath in contaminated air that would help a lot in a way however the rest of our body has to be protected too from particle contamination like the eyes. Either that or it could be decontaminated later like taking a good shower but that's a compromise simpler solution and still somewhat risky.

Maybe someone could have a rent a used decommissioned Air Force pressurized G suit company.

[dvm]

I think we should take a purely objective look at the current Corona virus situation to perhaps give a different perspective. As a police investigator for almost 30 years I know when I was not as objective as I should of been I didn’t do as good a job as I would have liked to. I am presenting these stats as I think they are thought provoking and not a critique of our reaction to the Corona situation. The critique will come when it is all said and done. These numbers are from the CDC. I might add the 2018-2019 flu season was milder than the year before. These numbers are estimates by the CDC. I could not find a total for Covid-19 hospitalizations only by state. I am too lazy to add them up.

2018-2019 Flu season in the US: 42.9 million got sick, 647,000 were hospitalized and 61,000 died.

As of April 10 US Corona virus cases: Total cases: 459,165 (200,00 of the cases are in NY and NJ ) , Total deaths: 16,570

[bkmetz2x205]

I think we should take a purely objective look at the current Corona virus situation to perhaps give a different perspective. As a police investigator for almost 30 years I know when I was not as objective as I should of been I didn’t do as good a job as I would have liked to. I am presenting these stats as I think they are thought provoking and not a critique of our reaction to the Corona situation. The critique will come when it is all said and done. These numbers are from the CDC. I might add the 2018-2019 flu season was milder than the year before. These numbers are estimates by the CDC. I could not find a total for Covid-19 hospitalizations only by state. I am too lazy to add them up.

2018-2019 Flu season in the US: 42.9 million got sick, 647,000 were hospitalized and 61,000 died.

As of April 10 US Corona virus cases: Total cases: 459,165 (200,00 of the cases are in NY and NJ ) , Total deaths: 16,570

This is a dangerous comparison. If you look at just the gross numbers, the fatality rate for the flu in 2018–2019 was 1/10 of 1%. So far the fatality rate of known cases of COVID-19 in this country, based on the numbers you posted, is 3.6%. That number is likely too high because we don’t know the actual number of people who were infected with COVID-19.

Let’s just assume that the fatality rate is 1%. If 42.9 million people got SARSCoV-2, at 1% fatality rate we would lose over 4 million people. Let’s just say that the true fatality rate is 0.5%. We would lose 2 million people. Even if it’s 0.25%, we will lose 1 million people.

All you have to do is look at areas where the healthcare system has been overwhelmed to see what the true potential is. If the spread of the virus can be slowed, lives will be saved, although it is inevitable that many will still die.

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

I was just going to say a similar thing. Basically if we treated the Coronavirus (COVOD-19) or SARS-CoV2 as like the regular flu and most people got infected in the USA we could have millions of deaths
which would be unacceptable. This is why we had a national shutdown and social distancing. We have to slow this until we can have a vaccine. We might still have hundreds of thousands of deaths anyway during the meantime (mostly due to the fools ignoring the distancing and not taking careful precautions).
I've heard that New Zealand has even stricter rules and it is working there.
Maybe we should have martial law enacted to have stricter controls and hence a lessening of problems.
Already there have been a couple of shootings lately nearby my neighborhood by some criminals.

I have gotten hit by the Flu a couple of times however I am yearly vaccinated.

Edit- On the bright side this social distancing will also greatly slow down any influenza outbreaks too during the meantime so like Scott's post on the forum that's a positive thing.

[dvm]

Here is an unanswerable question ! Why didn't we shelter in place and close non essential businesses last year in a attempt to prevent some of the 61,000 flu related deaths ? What is an acceptable fatality rate ? The health care system has not been overwhelmed except in a few locals. Just playing the devils advocate and no one has the answers at this juncture. I know I sure don't.

[JJB17463rdBombGroup]

Here is an unanswerable question ! Why didn't we shelter in place and close non essential businesses last year in a attempt to prevent some of the 61,000 flu related deaths ? What is an acceptable fatality rate ? The health care system has not been overwhelmed except in a few locals. Just playing the devils advocate and no one has the answers at this juncture. I know I sure don't.

That's a very good question about what is an acceptable fatality rate.

Certainly 61,000 deaths is quite a large loss about the same as the U.S. Armed Forces lost in the whole Vietnam police action
If we lost 3.6% of a 330,000,000 population that would be a 11.8 million person loss that is if everyone became infected.
If we lost 1% than it would be a 3.3 million people loss.
1/2% would be 1.65 million people lost
Also I think that this is more infective than the ordinary influenza too except for perhaps the horrific Spanish Flu pandemic from 1918 that lasted for a few years.
My grandfather told me that when he was on a troop ship coming back from WW1 they stacked the dead Spanish Flu victims like cord wood on the deck of his ship (SS Friedrich der Grosse renamed the USS Huron (ID-1408)).
This outbreak will likely also last a couple of years too and may mutate.

[wblackret]

My grandfather told me that when he was on a troop ship coming back from WW1 they stacked the dead Spanish Flu victims like cord wood on the deck of his ship (SS Friedrich der Grosse renamed the USS Huron (ID-1408)).

Just yesterday on the news they showed lines of refrigeration trailers being used to store the dead bodies and also showed mass graves for unclaimed bodies, stacked two wide and three high. It’s horrible, truly horrible!

I wish all well!