Scholarly speculation on the BoB

Battle of Britain "Wings of Victory"
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PV
BDG
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Scholarly speculation on the BoB

Post by PV »

Conclusions I suspect are not news to campaign players here:

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-mathemati ... arios.html

filtonboy
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Joined: 29 Aug 2015, 05:15

Re: Scholarly speculation on the BoB

Post by filtonboy »

States the obvious for most historical events really.

Waterloo would have been different if Blucher had arrived later.

Agincourt would have had a different outcome if there had been fewer longbows employed.

A bit like looking after your health, small changes can make big differences.

f.b.

Eisenfaust
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Re: Scholarly speculation on the BoB

Post by Eisenfaust »

I think a mathematical model is utterly unsuited to determine the outcome of historical events in slightly alternate histories.

If you change one variable others would change too...

If LW conduct of operations or tactics had changed, RAF would have reacted.

That's why the player will always win his LW campaign in this game :)

He doesn't have to outsmort Dowding or Parks - he has to beat an AI programmed to behave historical correct ^^

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Baza
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Re: Scholarly speculation on the BoB

Post by Baza »

When I worked in the coal mines, they had a saying about such speculation; 'And if my uncle hadn't had a willy, he'd have been my aunt' (I've cleaned that up a bit).

Eisenfaust is right, the model relies on the RAF responding in the same way it did and not adapting to meet different tactics from the LW. The possibilities, while not infinite, are still great and, I imagine, very difficult to compute.
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